Year+11+12th+August

=Level 5 Probability= =A01: Compare and describe the variation between theoretical and experimental distributions in situations that involve elements of chance.= AO2: Calculate probabilities, using fractions, percentages, and ratios.

=Level 6 Probability= =AO1: Investigate situations that involve elements of chance: comparing discrete theoretical distributions and experimental distributions, appreciating the role of sample size; calculating probabilities in discrete situations.=

Students Voice: variation between theoretical and experimental distributions is... The difference between the expected probability of an event and the actual results of the event.

theoretical: calculated probability eg tossing a coin 50/50, pick a red ball out of a bag with 3 red and 1 black = 3/4 experimental: actual trials, actually doing it See Santa's Sack [] and [] Use the table below to see if the game "chase me" (above link) is fair.

We saw that you need to do a certain amount of trials in order for the average outcome to be close to the theoretical probability.

Language =investigate= this is not just about calculations or simulations, it is thinking about these calculations and simulations.We need to evaluate the answers, think about how valid our findings are =discrete= you can count them (heads or tails, things in a bag, a known number of possible outcomes) =sample size= or number of trials - a larger sample, or more trials gets a more accurate result

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